The Boundless Sea

Hatris will win the 2024 election because voters will more travel the easier road

Since 2016, every four year cycle, I’ve put up a prediction of who will win the US presidential election.  And each cycle I have bet the Democrats will win. So currently I’m scoring at a 50-50 average – about as good as a coin toss!

Still, even a well reasoned bad call is better than no call at all. And im calling a Harris victory. The DEMs are the presumptive favourites, because they are becoming the Natural Party of Government. Their project of “Californicating” the US nation state into a proto-one-party state seems to be on-track:

• Replacing the legacy American nation with a novelty Rainbow Coalition of tribes.  With the DEM party machine dispensimg  patronage in return for ethnic bloc voting. With REPs reduced to a rump party, representing rural interests.
• Reconstructing the United States government, transforming it from a constitutional state into globalist commission.  With the Deep State apparatus cancelling enemies and recruiting allies.

This project is a work in progress. The existence of Trump-MAGA is proof that the legacy American nation still has poltical consciousness. And the emergemce of X as an instituional supporter of the First Amendment proves that there is still hope for the Land of the Free.

But it is an up hill battle. The DEMs offer most people the path of least resistance, and this tends to win, more often than not.

The irruption of the MAGA insurgency means that US elections tend to be too close for the liberal Establishment to enjoy its comfort zone. This makes them interesting and it has turned psephelogists into rock stars.

They fall into two methodological camps:

• Fundamentalists on governance: lan Lichtman 13 keys, Ray Fair macroeconomic, Douglas Hibbs “peace & bread”
• Pollsters focus on campaigns:  Nate Silver, 538, RCP poll average, The Economist Bayesian

My basic instinct is to trust the fundamentalists, since they make falsifiable predictions. Whereas pollsters only take snapshots, which  have a notional probability of being true to voters preferences today, that can’t be falsified tomorrow.

But sometimes a Black Swan emerges who throws the fundamentalists models into a cocked hat. And that someone is Donald Trump.  He drew an inside straight to win five out of six of mid western swing states to win the 2016 election. What are the odds on that?

He might well have cruised to victory in 2020 had not Covid, and associated “mostly peaceful protests”, de–railed his candidacy. And here he is again, running neck-and-neck with Harris, despite being the most prosecuted and vilified politician in US history.  He surely would have cruised to victory had the DNC head-kickers not issued Biden with an ultimatum: resign or be overthrown.

The DEM return to normal progamimg has given the fundamentalist model a new lease on life. Harris is the least promising candidate in DEM history: she was a Californian affirmative action hire, won zero delegates in the primaries, selected as VPOTUS as a sop to the Black caucus and is a cringeworkthy campaigner.

Yet the record shows that she is doing about as well as a generic DEM candidate. She has been born aloft by fundmental factors: Bidens governance and the diverse electoral demography. A quick-and-dirty shopping list

• Demography is Destiny
• Its the economy, stupid
• Hell hath no fury
• Pork Barrell
• The Deep State Strikes Back
• Trump Derangement Syndrome
• Follow the Money
• Eat Your Greens
• Flood the Zone
• Ground Game

I will try to flesh these out with some facts, where possible showing the movement of the fundmental variable relative to Trumps first, successful, candidacy. In these cases, it is adverse:

• Demography is Destiny: The American polity continues to evolve from a legacy WASP-led nation into a novelty Rainbow Coaltion. From 2016 to 2024 the Caucasian ratio of the population declined from 61% to 58%.  Over the same period, the Christian rario declined from 70% to 66%.  The REPs WASP Boomer voting base is dying off and being replaced by anti-WASP Zoomers.
• It’s the Economy, stupid: The Biden administration of the US economy continues to beat all-comers. From 2021-24, acording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the average economic growth rate has been 3.4%, nearly double post-GFC average.  Biden’s S&P 500 Compound Average Growrh Rate was 11.9%, slightly below Trump’s at 13.7%.  But  still enough to cement the image of the Roaring Twenties in the publics mind.
• Hell hath no fury: Educated women are emerging as the largest and most vitriolic anti-Trump voting bloc.  Their share of the voting age population has increased from 28% to 38%. And they tend to break 2:1 in favour of Harris. Probably more in this cycle, owing to the SCOTUS decision revoking Roe v Wade and their “ick” revulsion against the sleazier side of Trump.
• Pork Barell: The DEMs have been in power for  four years. Although Harris does not benfit from the legitimacy of Presidential office, her regime has been spending money like a drunken sailor on leave.  And some of it to good effect:  CHIPS Act. Inflation Reduction Act, Build Back Better.  That patronage is going to buy a lot of clients, who want to keep their wagins hitched to the DEM party machine gravy train.
• Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS): Trumps chaotic persona makes for great media but alienates moderates. It would make more sense to call this Trump Fatigue Syndrome (TFS), since TDS simply makes the DEM voter base agitated, whereas TFS will sway swing voters.. He seems to have an upper ceiling of 48%, which means he always has to win swing states.  “Four More Years” of Trump,will resonate with disengaged voters.
• The Deep State Strikes Back: The US Regime, colloquially known as the liberal Establishment, is a force to be reckoned with.  Its in full court press behind Harris. Wall Street hedge fund managers,  Pentagon generals and Hollywood celebrities have all come out as DEMs.  If the experts on Regime Change can degrade the First Amendment and cancel Musk they can defeat Trump.
• Follow the Money: The DEMs have crushed the REPs in campaign finance. Trump has not received the free “smash mouth” publicity he got in 2016.
• Eat your Greens: The DEM party machine has pushed the Greens off presidential ballot in numerous states. Thus preventing vote siphoning to their Left.
• Flood the Zone: The MSM have, as usual, all been in lock-step support of the DEMs. Message discipline has been tight.
• Ground Game: The DEMs usually excel in Get Out The Vote

In short, in the battle to control the governemmt of the USA nation state, the DEMs have managed to replace the REP nation with a Rainbow Coaltion of voters and the Deep State has reconstructed the US into a proto one-party state.

Harris to win somewhere between 270-330 in the Electoral College. I have at least $1000 worth of skin in this game.

I have been predicting a Biden-DEM landslide – 330-359 electoral college votes, with $3k skin in this game. The longer Trump has mishandled the Covid / recession, the longer I have gone on Biden.

After a rethink, and another look at the polling data, I predict he race will be closer, 300-329 votes. I will have to hedge the landslide bet.

Trump was toast as far back as 2018. The Blue Wave that swept the DEMs into HoR dominance was “Demography is Destiny” with a vengeance. That wave swells by the day. It will eventually crash on the shores of the US polity in the form of the Emerging Democratic Majority – a DEM one-party dominant state ie Californication of US government.

But Trump has made the REPs bad situation worse. Using an updated version of my “Five P model” (TM) – in May 2015 it predicted a REP victory in 2016 – let me count the ways the electorate loves Trump not. Hereunder a ten point check-list spelling out how the 2020 REPs are objectively worse off than the 2016 REPs.

• Demography is Destiny: The legacy nation (Caucasian race, Christian religion and Constitutional rule) continues to evolve (by immigration and conversion) into a novelty nation (non-Caucasian race, non-Christian religion and non-Constitutional rule). Trumps voting catchment area (white working class Christians) dwindles and ages, going from 45% to 41% of those eligible to vote.
• American Carnage: Trumps mishandling of the covid pandemic hit his supporter base hard, killing many white geezers in “flyover country”. This did not enhance his appeal as a strong man who protects his people from “American Carnage”.
• It’s the Economy, stupid: The economy keeps getting swamped by successive Covid waves. And Trump bungled his stimulus. The Ray Fair macroeconomic model predicts a landslide for Biden.
• Personnel is Policy: Trumps cabinet administration has been a shambolic farce. The turnover of officials from Secretaries down has been the worst in the post Cold War era. The comparison with the Obama admins cool competence is striking.
• Show business for ugly people: Trumps narcissistic personality is repellent to all except his followers. Biden’s essential decency is a blessed relief by comparison
• The Empire Strikes Back: The US Establishment is utterly united in its hatred and contempt for Trump – the MSM (duh!), Pentagon, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the Ivy League even Wall Street. The Deep State promoted two movements to impeach Trump. It will not be blind sided by Russian interference this time around.
• Failure to Launch: Trump is a fake populist. He has largely abandoned his populist program in favour of Republican establishment priorities. There has been little or no nationalist movement on immigration, trade and foreign policy. The Wall is unbuilt, the trade war with China has flopped and the Pentagon continues its endless wars in the Middle East. The only policies he has got through have benefited the donor class. His base has little reason to get out and vote.
• Always playing Catch up: Trumps political machinations look amateurish compared to Pelosi and Schumers Machiavellian maneuvers. Replacing Bannon with Kushner was a fatal error.
• Follow the Money: The DEMs have crushed the REPs in campaign finance. Trump has not received the free “smash mouth” publicity he got in 2016.
• Eat your Greens: The DEM machine has pushed the Greens off presidential ballot in numerous states Thus preventing vote siphoning to their Left.

In psephological theory these factors must make a difference. And in polling practice they do, with Biden enjoying a landslide lead of 6%+.

There is strong early voting suggesting that “the baseball bats are out” and that Trump is going down hard. Undecideds will go against incumbent, as per usual, just to stop all the argy bargy.

I could be wrong – I reckon a 10% chance of that. There is some chance that the “shy Trump voters” theory is true, masking the extent of nationalist support for Trump ie “my candidate, right or wrong”. I don’t think this theory is true based on the fact that the polling support for generic Congressional REPs pretty much tracks support for Trump. Why be shy about a generic REP? More on that later.